No.1629904
any long shelf life food recs? ton of my canned is going bad this year
No.1629905
>>1629899both should be made illegal
No.1629913
>>1629911wew
uhm xir if i may…
i'm not particularly sure about your axises and that appears to be a classic double spank forming…
No.1629924
>>1629904ya start making preserved foods urself not even tryin to be a snarky dick about it rly just start dumping shit in vinegar and drying out meats and stuff this is shit >our forebears did for frickin ever so you can to budy
No.1629939
>>1629904yea, canned doenst actually go bad
the shit is sealed up, and cooked to a bajillion degrees killing ERYTHING
unless the can has been compromised (dents will fuck the seal), your food will still be safe to eat, although maybe degraded in taste, texture, or appearance
No.1629946
just join a doomsday cult
No.1629948
>>1629911i dont think xadies should be wearing suits….
No.1629978
>>1629939the worst i have seen is canned stuff developing surface rust. ive seen that shit last 20 years or more judging by cleaning out the houses of dead relatives.
No.1630026
>>1629924got in my head it needed to be from my garden for some reason but thats retarded now you mention it
>>1629939>>1629978you're right, found some dobson deenz and had a moment
No.1630041
>>1630026yea just be careful that the cans look in good condition- free of dents, corrosion, and bulging
then ofc when you do open them, be on the lookout for bad odors or foamy appearance, as those are signs of botulism (uncommon since commercial canning should happen at a high enough temp to stop that, but still happens sometimes)
pass all those, and you should be fine
No.1630062
>>1630027importing the entirety of the third world and using the remains of >our coffers is >our greatest strength
No.1630074
>>1630027theyre using official cpi for projections
usgay is fucked
No.1630076
>>1630074lmfao i love how they keep taking things off of CPI to keep it artificially low
No.1630081
>>1630027just kill all the old people
No.1630105
>>1630081better yet, kill the niggers
No.1630158
>>1630076just straight up changed definition of recession lel. every month they have to 'adjust' past numbers down
but even using hsv level 5 spirit cooking alchemy this is as unblown as they can get the books?
i dont feel so gud mr spart
No.1630167
>>1630158fight fire with fire
go to india and take their jobs
No.1630175
>>1630158>third picand now they're bragging about white genocide
No.1630177
>>1630175and thats a good thing inshallah
No.1630185
>>1630167tbh id prob scam boomers at this point
throw a drawl in my voice say im rajeesh, mix it up for em
No.1630188
>>1630175well judging from how retarded brown employees actually are turning out to be even if they went full on gaza tier genocide on yt i dont think theyd get more than halfway done with that at best before they fuck it up and start killing themselves and each other
No.1630197
>>1630185im p sure you only have to go to new jersey for that
No.1630200
you know whats the rly funny thing is it doesnt say how much theyre getting paid
good ol corporate doin what they do: cutting overhead
No.1630215
>>1630200saw smth about removing top 1000 richest and average income's 35k/yr but didnt look into it bc its all fake
def get what you pay for, shit be rarted. surprised things dont boeing boom all the time tbh
No.1630233
>>1630215youre probably gonna be seeing more and more inexcusable shit like bridges collapsing due to halfassed or outright nonexistent repair work
No.1630236
>>1630233pretty sure they arent hiring chinese
No.1630244
>>1630233prolly be a while before we see anything that extreme, but we will see big corps losing a shitton of money but still somehow staying afloat because of diversitybux via blackcock
>my corp has a dedicated mailing list for every minority to keep them "empowered"ya let's see how empowered you are when blackrock goes under lmao
No.1630248
>>1630233epa etc forcing all kinds of plants to upgrade too, get manuel labor on jeet design
idk if engineerbros are still here but being competent at any stage=10x the work and fucks schedules now, so you know what the suits see
No.1630249
>>1630243>Andrew Miller who currently runs the Israeli and Palestinian portfolio at the department is leaving his role for personal reasons, sources familiar with his departure told CNNheem dilaty
No.1630252
>>1630236youre right its worse theyre hiring niggers jeets and womyn
>>1630244idk that depends on where you are. where i'm at the DOT is having a vary hard time keeping people and their work was already total shit to begin with. i think the interstates are the only decent roads here and even then theres still large stretches of car murdering potholes on some of them
No.1630256
>>1630244>when blackrock goes underthey in danger though? arguably a gubmint wing now
No.1630258
>>1630254nyidia is so overpriced it's not even funny, when they finally crash they will crash fukn
HARD No.1630259
>>1630256>they in danger though?lol no not at all. bros been reading too much zerohedge
couldnt be more too big to fail if they tried. the govts bags and blackrocks bags are the same bag
No.1630273
>>1630259>govts bags and blackrocks bags are the same bagit's the militant arm of gommie globohomo. zerohedge shitting on em?
maybe i'm wrong but no1 bats an eye at nationalizing corps anymore. my impression was if their bottom line even sneezes it'll make 08 look lik a found nickel but idk how it would considering their port is basically everything mandatory to live
No.1630279
>>1630254>c-suite retards are falling for magic words again?yup. ai is hard to turn into a sellable product and ai companies are relying on investors being clueless and just dumping money into them. only a fraction of them have a product to actually sell. pretty much the only sustainable way to run an ai company is taking contracts for projects from other companies.
No.1630280
>>1630258stop that.
it would crater my tech stocks into the fucking ground
No.1630282
>>1630279>yup. ai is hard to turn into a sellable producthow??
it can already write school papers better than most retards. you could easily have it churn out shit for students to cheat with. an instant product that would sell a LOT. you could even train it to not set off cheat detection shit they use these days
you think Cheg makes a lot of money with their 'personal tutoring' section (aka pay you to do my work) part of their site?
it'd be nothing compared to this
just one of a dozen use cases i can think of off the top of my head
No.1630285
>>1630280still have funds after arkkk? only half snark bc lel women
No.1630286
>>1630281i dislike NVIDIA on an ideological level
but i'm not the one that manages the portfolio allocation for my 401k stock option
and i can either pick VITAX, (which has 15% NVIDIA) and an annual return rate of
or i can pick [LITERAL WHO] mutual fund with an annual return rate between -5% and 1%
its so fucking retarded its not even an option. theres like 30 mutual funds with abysmal growth and this tech one which even if it has elevated risk, is a billion times better than guaranteed depreciating stuff
i haven't looked in a while but my 401k is probably substantially greener than my regular portfolio atm
No.1630287
>>1630286ok budy my work's 401K through (((Bank of Weimerica))) gave me a fukn
20% increase last year i shit you not
if i can find what they have their filthy jewish claws in i will let you know
No.1630288
i didnt take my work 401k because it sounds incredible jewish to invest in the (((stock market)))
No.1630289
>>1630282go try microshit or jewgles a.i.
at least for non yim use the consumer end product is fucking ass
no idea what the full story is but from what i've seen it's 1. tay never again 2. they hit a roadblock and out of desperation trained on all available data aka shitposts sorted by updoots
was some tinfoil but true story about bong moms renting their babies brains for processing training bc a.i. versus AGI is some 21 grams shit
No.1630290
>>1630288i mean 08 never properly corrected it's just funny munny sharting, but it can remain solvent longer than you can remain sane or w/e the fucking saying is
No.1630291
>>1630288you do it to reduce your tax basis
when you're making lots, that top 20% of your income is getting FUCKED in the ass HARD
No.1630293
>>1630291>>1630288oh also because often your employer matches, which is free $$
No.1630296
>>1630295skill issue
work for a better company
i get matched up to like 10% which is fuk insane
No.1630297
>>1630293pinkos would hard flip if they ever had to pay what an employer does, have to match so much
it's monopoly, ""morality"" is a delusional self-imposed handicap
No.1630298
>>1630296i just have to sit on it, in reality a very large proportion of my 'down' money is distributions but thats not how etrade tracks it
it is painful watching half my portfolio languish, tho. will be very painful when the bottom falls out soon, except that i have like 100k in cash ready to dump in
No.1630301
>>1630300im sorry to hear that ruby doo
No.1630302
>>1630298>i have like 100k in cash ready to dump innigger go to your local bank and dump that in a 6 month CD they're giving like 5-6% right now
enjoy it while it lasts
No.1630304
>>1630302>lock it in for 6 monthsuhhh
no
its in a high interest account earning 4.3%
i'll give up 2% for the flexibility if shit goes sideways NOW
No.1630305
>>1630304who's your HYSA with if i can ask?
No.1630306
>>1630305>HYSAMarcus
i'm sure i'm still losing, but again. risk reward
No.1630308
>>1630304that too, that prolly works better
i use capital one since USAA kept jewing me but
in terms of money i have no money, i have like $300 in savings rn, student loans are a bitch but i have stable employment so i'll be fine unless that's a really stupid low number, in which case please tell me No.1630309
>>1630306nah liquid is the play rn imo
>>1630308who knows. it's looked like beans & bullets time for awhile now
argument against is that inflation is going to rekt everyones shit so buy stuff (pref on loan so the money devalues) now & supply issues are a possibility
No.1630310
>>1630308i usually try to keep a couple grand liquid, but its just been building because this fucking pyramid scheme has gotta fail at some point right???? emperor has no clothes right now
or at least thats why i keep telling myself
i'm also throwing a lot of it into my house/tools and non-perishable food. i plan to spend another 5-10k on that sorta stuff but that still leaves me at 90k liquid
No.1630313
fwiw i'm paranoid af and rec 6 months food, water/water filtration, power, standard tinfoiler stuff, then keep 6 months ahead on mortgage and print it out, then at least 6 months expenses in cash
figure if/when tech hits a bump it's going to be a shit show and i know that bank error wont be in my favor
No.1630316
>>1630313idk budy people have been saying shit's gonna crash for the last half century
but it hasn't
i'll just keep living life as i am rn and if shit becomes bosnia-tier then oh well, guess i'll die
No.1630317
>>1630300not like the work for someone else yim leads anywhere for most people anymore either tho
either you figure out how to play jewish number games or you do like i do and just horde useful shit and hope you live through whatever horrible faggotry the demons who rule this planet have in store for you
No.1630318
>>1630316hasnt the stock market gone through multiple crashes since the 70s? or by crash do you mean like great depression crash because even in the 70s shit didnt look this retarded and grim and that was a particularly retarded and grim decade
No.1630319
>>1630316man ik, recycled more prep shit than i care to admit at this point
only have my sis and her kid as family now and she's retarded so feel a duty i guess. otherwise i'd mad max
No.1630321
>>1630317true. going shopping at 11 and avoiding crowds rules, just kinda now figuring out how important money is tho
idk why i spaz anymore, been pilled for decades, probly a rip the bandaid self induced psychosis thang and should just log off and have fun tbh but the tism gets me
No.1630323
>>16303136 months of food is so cheap to keep on hand that i dont see how anyone can have an excuse not to do it
No.1630327
>>1630324>not prepping for your one chance at retirementanon pls
No.1630331
the disgusting alliance between neocon truck faggots and far lefty in tesla comments is so fucking nauseating
are these useful idiots? or is this some sorta massive shareblue style influencing campaign
No.1630363
>>1630331>are these useful idiots?yes
>is this some sorta massive shareblue style influencing campaigni mean sure prolly some of that too. astroturfing is cheap and ez to automate. literally anything even remotely related to finance is always saturated w bullshit lies and shillshit
the recurring theme is once again enemy of my enemy being a retarded game to play. look at those retards. dont be them
No.1630367
>>1630324i mean youll be dead so it'll be worth it
No.1630381
>>1630367Imma laff when you get raped and killed by a wild pack of niggers
No.1630395
>>1630394wonder why burgers aren't hacking banks in russia or china
if they are i never hear about it
No.1630399
>>1630381figures a smug cuckime poster has an obsession with having sex with niggers
also how will you laugh when your fat ass is rotting in a basement?
No.1630401
>>1630395sar pls rajesh is trying but the russian and chinese banking systems dont fall for gift card scams as easily
No.1630404
>>1630399youre the one that brought up sex with niggers when rape was mentioned but I already see your looking forward to it
No.1630410
>>1630404>>1630324 (you)
>>he plans to live when shtf>>1630367 (me)
>i mean youll be dead so it'll be worth it>>1630381 (you again)
>Imma laff when you get raped and killed by a wild pack of niggers (first mention of niggers)what is it about anime that turns people into hateful nihilistic nigger worshipping cuckolds that cant read?
No.1630412
also i wasnt even talking about shtf either the converter is about economic problems
wtf is your problem put down the cartoons and go outside not everything is death and niggers
No.1630424
>>1630410>>1630412>cant read>chimps out in the most neurotic way possiblementally ill
No.1630428
>>1630410embittered spergs with shitty lives retreat into imageboards and anime, which forms a feedback loop where everything is godawful shit and nothing good ever happens, which then compounds into even more bitterness and anger. lather, rinse, repeat until you get handfuls of utterly broken misanthropic self-hating spergs shitposting on ded bords.
No.1630431
shits not hitting the fan
relax
its just shit
srsly if you think lik this you will genuinely be eaten alive in any trade you make. wall st eats expensive lunches on your misplaced overly bearish shenanigans. even especially in srs downturns, theres tons of money to be made on the long side. look for things that might go up, dont try to time when you think theyll go down. youll lose everything with the latter
No.1630437
spros im poor rn and eating beans and rice, what can i add to make it taste good
No.1630458
https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/25/nvidia_share_price_drop/so long as amd isn't even trying to meet nvidia's performance let alone beat them and intel's new cards are still a joke, nvidia is likely fine tbh. gaymers and crypto mining (which still somehow exists) will prop them up as always.
as usual litigation is likely their biggest threat, as their dominant position could open them up for anti-trust litigation and other such nonsense.
No.1630464
>>1630437put some red bean and rice seasoning on it, that shit makes it gud as hell
No.1630468
>>1630424xir pls take your nigger rape fantasies elsewhere this is a lose mone thread
No.1630470
>>1630437if you can get your hands on some hot af peppers that'll make a gr8 combo
or they'll just make everything taste like burning if you go too hot but thats on you to figure out
No.1630473
forgot to ask what is a gud 3d printer i can fit on a desk?
No.1630477
>>1630470last time i did that my mouth was on fire for an hour
prolly too much cayenne + peppers i grew myself but still
No.1630479
>>1630477then just use a lot less
i had these hot as fuck little habanero peppers and like two of them cut up into little bits mixed in with beans was perfect. the real hot ones are great specifically because you dont need to use much to spice up a meal so one harvest can last you so long
i was never able to get the lunatic shit like ghost pepper or hotter to work well in a meal tho i think thosre just for masochists
No.1630483
>>1630479i think hot peppers are just for people who like shooting flames out their anus when they shit
No.1630494
>>1630479i made the mistake of mixing jalapenos with some cayenne pepper I had and budy i went through an entire gallon of milk trying to cool off, shit was NOT fun
can't grow anything now since deck has zero direct sunlight and i'm on the third floor but maybe sometime in the future i'll try again
used to have a deck to grow stuff on two apartment ago but u cant rly do much when your neighbor drives through ur apartment and the fire department condemns it as unsafe
No.1630498
>>1630494could always get grow lamps. i use them for starting seeds indoors in the early spring before frost season ends. my windows are all north/south facing so i don't get direct sun either.
neighbors might think you are growing weed however
No.1630505
>>1630483yah ime habanero is the hottest one that still has a worthwhile flavor to it beyond that i may as well just hold a lighter to my tongue
>>1630494get revenge with peppers
No.1630510
>>1630505>get revenge with peppersnah im sure insurance fucked her hard with no lube
death to nurses, especially those who slam drugs to pull a 23 hour shift and act like it's totally normal
No.1630513
>>1630510but now you can fuck her with capsaicin lube
No.1630546
>>1630494just take the seeds out
the seeds are the part that has the most capsaicin
No.1630547
>>1630510>those who slam drugs to pull a 23 hour shift and act like it's totally normalthis actually prolly is normal
ive met quite a few
surgeons and commercial airline pilots are all heavy alcoholics too
No.1630550
>>1630547administrating sportschan too
No.1630643
>>1630641lel hope it was worth it
No.1630683
>>1630676this one makes me legs weak
fuck
No.1630688
>>1630683you know that shit hurt bad if a grown man is yelling "
OWIE" like a little toddler
No.1630698
>>1630688 oh i listened to it muted
its actually easier to watch with sound just because he's makin so much noise
No.1630705
how the fuck do you choose what to buy with long term stonk market games? watch a shitload of news and guess what companies to throw your money at? read shit like tech blogs?
No.1630706
>>1630705u don't
u put your dobsons in index funds and let people way smarter than u (ie people with access to insider trading) manage ur money for you and be happy with your 5% every year
No.1630709
>>1630706are cheaper index funds even worth bothering with or is this a game i need to sink $20k into to see any worthwhile return?
most i can part with rn is $5k
No.1630715
>>1630287i just looked at what my cumulative return for VITAX is and its 20%
and that factors in the HIGH HIGHS that got bought up at last peak
one of my years annualized return rate is 70%, insanity
i have 100k in my 401k right now, so i'm closing in on 600k total rn
and thats with the bulk
really, half of my portfolio rn languishing
No.1635334
Check’d
No.1640509
>>1640480explain this to me like im retarded
No.1640535
>>1640509it's a graphical representation of one of those fireworks that splits into multiple charges in midair
No.1640539
>>1640535what part of ukraine is this?
No.1640562
>>1640509wheat from chaff time
No.1640576
>>1640539no thats palestine
No.1640652
>check muh stonks
>up on everything except gudyear which was a guess bet anyway
8bit wario lookin like a rart doin thumbs up.png
No.1640657
>>1640652i tried stonks a couple years ago then sold them off after only making 100 dollars and then like two months later most of the stonks i had started to go up. all i had to do was wait which is the one thing i'm usually rally gud at and i didn't do it
No.1640659
File: 1722903628642.gif (43.32 KB, 560x582, 280:291, When the WA hits just righ….gif)
>>1640652don't have that one but i have this
No.1640695
>>1640659that is nice ty
also i found it
No.1640772
For some reason youtube has been reccomending me videos about the Warioland series and I was reminded of how great those games were.
Its a shame modern Nintendo became total soy bugman tier.
No.1640777
>>1640772make sure to play warioland 4 for game boy advance
incredible, incredible
No.1640791
>>1640777I have already, one of my favs.
That games OST probably got me into all the weird experimental crap I listen too today.
No.1641034
Repo — American Hegemony
If dollar funding (dollar demand) is America's claim to hegemony and infinite fiscal space (the Treasury's monopoly on unlimited debt issuance), then the repo market is perhaps the most essential piece to the hegemonic puzzle.
Lack of demand for Treasuries implies a lack of demand for dollar funding, and is often cited as the catalyst for America's "eventual" collapse. After all, who is going to buy billions in debt maturing in 2034 or later, issued by a nation on a clearly unsustainable fiscal path, right? It makes little to no practical sense… that is, until you understand how the dollar system works.
In the modern financial system, a Treasury is money. Treasuries = dollars.
Repo markets in general serve as a nexus between financial actors with different funding needs and objectives, such as money market funds or shadow banks with cash to lend and hedge funds with borrowing needs to meet, intermediated by banks (broker-dealers). These interactions take place in particular venues of the repo market, and each venue has a distinct interest rate ("repo rate").
A risky, dubious, yet elaborate arbitrage trade known for blowing up during turmoil provides a vital mechanism for engineering dollar demand, and creates a bulwark for American hegemony that not even de-deollarization of global trade can detach from.
The reality is that — as I warned months ago — dollar hegemony is largely out of the hands of governments and politics, but within the short term motives of what I called "agnostic" (politically and culturally indifferent with a profit-focused priority) financial actors, such as repo dealers, megabanks, and hedge funds.
Other countries will repo their sovereign bonds. In Japan, for example, a small market for "gensaki transactions" (Japanese Government Bond JGB repo) exists. However, none are nearly as liquid as UST repo, as both domestic and foreign holdings of USTs vastly outnumber those of other sovereign bonds.
JGB (or other sovereign bond) futures are generally less liquid or don't exist, eliminating the potential for liquidity to come from basis trades (which we will look at in depth). As you'll see, liquidity matters.
The reality may bite, but if you're going to argue in good faith about the future of the dollar, you must first understand how embedded it is within the global financial system and — importantly — why it continues to be.
This post will review Treasury repo and its various venues, note how repo market leverage creates more Treasury demand via cash-futures basis trades, and suggest how the basis trade could unravel.
No.1641035
>>1641034Treasury Repo
We've covered what Treasury repo is and how it works, both in text and in a video series (
https://t.me/DissidentThoughts/3456?single and
https://t.me/DTPrimers/110?single ), but it's such a crucial piece to the modern financial system that it can't be reiterated enough. Fortunately, it's rather simple.
A repo (short for repurchase) transaction involves the sale of assets (collateral) with an agreement to buy them back (repurchase) on a specified future date (usually the next day) and at a prearranged price. By selling your collateral and agreeing to repurchase it, you are just borrowing cash. There's no need to make it any more confusing than that. The pawn shop analogy is accurate:
For example, at a pawn shop you may "sell" $1000 worth of gold (ex: a gold ring), and accept $950. The reason the pawn shop "dealer" would be willing to lend only $950 for $1000 in collateral is because he knows that gold has been quite volatile lately, and if gold's price were to fall 5% (the collateral value falls to $950) or more, he may lose money on the transaction. The 5% "premium" is called a haircut, and is a layer of insurance.
At the end of the transaction, which in repo is usually the next day, you would purchase the gold back from the dealer for $950 (plus any interest). You could also choose to extend the loan ("roll over the repo").
But in reality, you're not selling the gold item per se, because you're agreeing to repurchase the item back from the dealer at the pawn shop. If you fail to do so, the dealer keeps the collateral — hence it is "secured lending."
While "gold repo" is in theory totally possible, it serves better only as an example. Treasury repo, where Treasury bills/notes/bonds are the collateral, is a daily operation of several trillion dollars, with unreported venues comprising another estimated ~$2 trillion in daily volumes.
The exhibit above is a very basic model of the dollar flows in repo. The collateral (Treasury securities) flow in the opposite direction of cash, obviously. And while there are four major repo venues (Tri-Party repo, GCF & DVP interdealer repo, and uncleared bilateral repo), the only differences are a third-party custodian holding the collateral (in tri-party repo) and whether the transaction is cleared by the FICC (in interdealer repo).
But at the end of the day, a repo is mechanically identical across all venues.
No.1641036
>>1641035Repo Financing
The repo market allows for relative value (RV) hedge funds engaged in the cash-futures basis trade to acquire significant leverage, thus generating correspondingly significant demand for cash Treasuries. This is called repo financing, or repo leverage.
For example, a hedge fund who wants to buy $100 in Treasuries can put down $1 of its own money and end up borrowing the remaining $99 in a repo transaction. Here is how that would work:
Step 1: A hedge fund agrees to buy $100 in Treasuries from a bank as part of a basis trade.
Step 2: At the same time, the hedge fund agrees to repo that $100 in Treasuries at a 1% haircut. This means the hedge fund will receive $99 in cash and agree to repurchase the Treasuries for $99.03 tomorrow (the $0.03 is the interest for the overnight loan, the repo rate). Note that the repo trade is a different counterparty than the original seller of the Treasury.
Normally, the hedge fund cannot sell the Treasuries for the full $100 because the dealer will ask for a small haircut to protect itself from any changes in the collateral value.
In the example we're using, the dealer sees Treasury collateral as very stable and is only looking for a 1% haircut (1% of $100, or $1). Note that in some bilateral repo markets, haircuts on Treasuries are nearly 0%, allowing for significant leverage (and risks).
The SEC’s proposal for mandatory repo clearing may reduce Treasury market liquidity by raising the cost of repo financing (haircuts in cleared repo are 2%), making the basis trade increasingly unprofitable.
Step 3: The hedge fund takes the $99 it received in the repo transaction, plus only $1 of its own money, and pays the bank $100 for the cash Treasury. The hedge fund is thus able to buy $100 of Treasuries with just $1 of its own money.
Note that up to this point, these steps should be thought of as occurring simultaneously.
Step 4: The next day the hedge fund is obligated to repurchase the $100 in Treasuries for $99.03, where $0.03 is the interest charged on the overnight loan. The hedge fund can either renew the repo loan or get out of the trade by selling the Treasury to the market for $100 and paying the dealer $99.03 with the proceeds.
With repo leverage, nominal demand for cash Treasuries is magnified.
No.1641037
>>1641036The Cash-Futures Basis Trade
In early 2018, a string of events formed an exploit in America’s sovereign debt market. Following a surge in Treasury issuance and regulatory reforms, asset managers (pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies) began to shift out of cash bonds and into long positions of their associated Treasury futures contracts.
A Treasury futures contract is a standardized agreement to buy Treasury securities at a predetermined price on a specified future date. Unlike option derivatives, which provide a right but do not obligate, futures contracts involve a binding obligation to transact on or before the contract matures.
The reason the basis (the difference between the cash Treasury price and the Treasury futures price) exists is because said asset managers began piling into Treasury futures, thus raising the futures' price relative to cash Treasuries. They prefer the futures over cash Treasuries because futures are operationally simpler and have less impact on their expense ratios. Most asset managers are not set up for repo, for example.
The cash-futures basis trade, or simply "the basis trade", is a three-legged arbitrage trade that seeks to exploit the basis, spanning three crucial financial markets: the cash Treasury market, where investors purchase Treasuries today; the Treasury futures market, where investors agree on a fixed price to pay for Treasuries they will receive in the future; and the Treasury repo market, where investors leverage their cash Treasury purchases.
Basis trades buy cash Treasuries and short Treasury futures to construct a payoff that depends on the two prices converging as the delivery date approaches (see Figure 2 in the third image).
This is similar to a long/short equity strategy, and convergence is virtually guaranteed: at the delivery date, cash and futures prices must be equal because otherwise on that date a trader could just buy a Treasury in the cash market and immediately deliver it into the futures market for an instant profit.
Shorting a Treasury futures contract means entering into an agreement to sell the underlying Treasury at a future date and at a predetermined price. It is an obligation.
To "deliver on a futures contract" means to fulfill that obligation by transferring the underlying Treasury to the buyer on the expiration date.
The key is that, so long as futures prices keep rising markedly above the price of their underlying Treasury securities, traders would buy bonds at a discount to what they’d receive when delivering these securities into futures contracts. If the basis were to narrow (or, potentially, invert), the trade would no longer be profitable, and this marginal buyer for Treasuries would vanish.
Only certain futures contracts and Treasury securities are used in basis trading. On any given date, there is just one Treasury security that basis traders want to own for each contract to make a particular deal as profitable as possible, called the “cheapest-to-deliver” Treasury.
The CTD ("cheapest-to-deliver") is simply the Treasury security with the cheapest value that is eligible to be delivered onto a futures contract.
Otherwise-similar Treasuries will differ in whether they are deliverable into a futures contract. A conversion factor attached to the futures price is meant to account for the desirability of individual Treasuries (the CME provides updates on conversion factors).
Due to these conversion factors, only one Treasury will be cheapest-to-deliver into each futures contract. But which that is can change over the life of a contract.
No.1641038
>>1641037Implementing Basis Trades
Understanding sources of risk for basis trades and where stress can manifest requires understanding the technical details of how these trades are implemented.
The basis — or the profitability of a cash-futures basis trade — is characterized by the implied repo rate (IRR), which reflects the cost of carrying the security (including financing costs) until the futures contract's expiration.
When the implied repo rate is greater than the actual repo rate, basis traders borrowing in the repo market can profit by buying the cash Treasury and shorting the corresponding futures. At delivery, the trader will earn the spread between the IRR and the repo rate. When the actual repo rate is greater than the implied rate, a "long basis" trade is not profitable.
The IRR is closely related to the yield on a Treasury bill because the cash flows from the basis trade replicate those from a Treasury bill maturing on the futures delivery date.
In particular, in times of relative illiquidity and high balance sheet costs, the implied repo rate has deviated significantly from the rate of return on bills.
One example of these deviations occurred following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (see Figure 4 above). Immediately after that collapse, as liquidity dried up in financial markets, implied repo rates collapsed deeply negative across contracts. The IRR decline reflected a flight to safety in Treasury markets.
Because the futures price and the cash price of the Treasury are known to the basis trader, provided he also knows the repo rate, profits on these bets at delivery are guaranteed.
The basis trade does not, however, offer risk-free profits. Several risks threaten the profitability of the basis trade, and thus create potential consequences for financial stability.
No.1641039
>>1641038The Greatest Credit Event of All
In just the last few weeks, we've seen two major trades — the Yen carry trade and the short volatility trade — "blow up", even though neither lasted nor took the street down with it. What about the basis trade?
We alluded at the start of the year that the "mother of all credit events" would be a disorderly rise in bond yields leading to dollar debasement. This is the "de-dollarization" that keeps Treasury and Federal Reserve officials up at night — not means of trade being re-routed off the dollar and onto other forms of settlement.
A credit event occurs when a borrower can no longer meet debt obligations, leading to a default, bankruptcy, or restructuring. For example, an insolvent bank being unable to pay depositors in a bank run.
There are two legs to the basis trade: the asset managers who express Treasury exposure via buying futures, and the hedge funds who repo finance cash Treasury purchases. While hedge funds are the marginal buyers of cash Treasuries, it's the asset managers who buy Treasury futures that ultimately hold the risk.
The marginal absorber of cash Treasuries remains the basis trade, but it can run into limits either from a regulatory crack down on hedge funds or limitations on dealer repo financing. New research from TBAC suggests that changes in the credit environment could also threaten the trade.
What asset managers do is effectively take the opposite side of the basis trade by selling cash Treasuries outright and using the proceeds to finance their credit investments. They then add back the Treasury exposure through futures.
That positioning also more directly links the Treasury & credit markets together, as potential losses on credit may lead to deleveraging in Treasury positions as managers de-gross.
It could also lead to liquidity squeezes as managers sell Treasuries to meet redemptions, as credit markets may not be liquid to enough to raise cash. Outside of a systemic or apparent credit event, note that credit spreads have spiked this month.
In the wake of such a risk-off credit event (think: a bank failure), monetary authorities are limited to only a few modes of easing. But the rise of foreign, non-official, unhedged accounts as the marginal buyer for Treasuries means that they are particularly vulnerable to dollar devaluation that results from a policy of easing.
Aggressive rate cuts in the name of providing economic support for example may therefore paradoxically be ill advised insofar as it weakens the dollar against other currencies (like the euro), because said non-official accounts would likely firesale their Treasury holdings as they try to avoid realizing losses, spiking repo financing costs and repo rates as dealer warehousing capacity is pushed to the edge.
That was the case in March 2020, when risk-off paradoxically led to a spike in yields, as Treasury holders aggressively sold their securities for cash. Although this time, it may be to preserve foreign capital against unhedged Treasury losses.
(Disclaimer: this is a theoretical but plausible example).
heres da thread and it has a lot more links than the two i posted in the first of these posts
https://t.me/DissidentThoughts/3811 No.1641065
>>1641039>The Greatest Credit Event of Alllel i remember i did a schizopost about this same shit lik 6yrs ago and zerohedge just copypastad it from /biz/. they took out all the imageboardisms tho. way to ruin the fun
No.1641066
but yah the next big credit crunch will be absolutely fucking catastrophic on a lvl >weve never seen before
No.1641092
>>1641039gud effortpost
moneys so incredibly fake and gay, basically lizard people being real. boggles the mind
No.1646729
how can i make beans and rice not taste like drywall
No.1646732
>>1646729brown ppl been doing this forever just ask them
No.1646844
>>1646729rice cooker is the worlds greatest invention to not involve pornography
add some cumin, salsa, hot sauce, get jiggy with it
meat and cheese are so easy they're practically cheating
experiment with how you cook the beans
oven baked beans are underrated
if you still can't manage it cut the beans and just figure out how to make rice delicious first (never eat rice on its own)
white rice in particular is bland but a great enhancer to a bunch of other foods, there's a reason it's usually eaten as a bed or wrap for other foods
No.1646911
>>1646844adding all those things kinda defeats the financial point of eating beans and rice though.
No.1646914
>>1646911>can't afford seasoning or hot sauceholy shit stop wasting all your money on vwhores and figurines you manchild
No.1646920
>>1646911are you planning to use sonmuch seasoning to the point a 5 dollar bottle of something doesn't last you months? i'm generous af with shit like garlic powder and cayenne pepper and a little container of each will still last me like 3 months
rice cookers are also cheap and a one time purchase, sometimes in order to save you've gotta spend at first. or you can just stick with your bland af beans and rice i guess idk
No.1646921
rice cookers are fucking goated
cooking rice on a stove top makes me want to commit violent murders
i picked one up for 80 dollars at costco, its a tiger model and its pretty good, 6 months of use and no complaints
just got to be careful with the teflon inside, or else you will get sissy hypno chemicals in all your rice
No.1646924
>>1646911budy spices are cheap as fucking shit wat are you even talking about go talk to the crikmonkrs they hook it up phat
No.1646925
>>1646921>>1646844how are you guys fucking up stove rice?
they rally that big of an upgrade if ur rice game is gud?
>>1646729hot sauce, or just buy whatev veg is on special. greens r gud in it, can eat dandelion greens if ur super poor budy but then u should just do a garden
No.1646927
>>1646921>cooking rice on a stove top makes me want to commit violent murdersits not that bad
just give it a lil more water than usual
i usually throw some butter or oil in it too so then even if im totally retarded and forget i was cookin it doesnt get all fucked to the bottom of the pot
No.1646930
>>1646925they're so legit they need an mc hammer endorsement
the rice is perfect every time, they can do all kinds of rice, and cooking is so goddamn easy
>add water>add rice>push button>wait for beepbut that's not even the best part
if you get one of the fancy jap models that lock and seal they can keep your rice fresh cooked for like 24 hours after it finishes
No.1646933
>>1646930my rice is nice already
add 2 cardamom pod and 2 anise to 1C rice but
>fresh cooked for like 24 hoursmay have sold me. hows jap material these days?
leaving sketch MTR teflon on heat sounds iffy
No.1646943
>>1646925if your stove sucks it's easy to accidentally turn the whole pot into one giant sticky ball of bullshit. just gotta watch it more closely in that case but you could also just get a rice cooker i guess
No.1646944
i already have a pressure cooker that i got for free cuz my sister bought one for my mom for Christmas but Macy's fucked up and delivered two at no extra charge so i got the other one. rly nice for cooking beans, can have dried beans ready to eat in under an hour without soaking, shit's great.
also have a meat grinder and pasta cutter that i have yet to use, could i just buy cheap cuts that they're about to trash anyways and grind em up?
No.1646945
>>1646925problem is it boils over really fuckn easily if you add too much water then you got rise residue all over your pot and stove that you have to clean up, too little water and it all becomes a burnt mess by the end
even when ur doing it in an instant pot when you open the pressure release all the rice residue sprays out like a volcano
No.1646953
>>1646925its not about fucking it up, its that to get it consistent you really need to be on it the whole time
its also highly dependent on your stove top type, i mean god forbid you are a electric top user trying to make rice
with a rice cooker, its just wash the rice, add some water, add your chosen spices, DONE and clean up is so fucking easy
No.1646956
>>1646943>>1646945>>1646953sounds lik you guys are converted but 3:2 w:r, cover, bring to boil, shake or stir, low for 20-25 mins. less work than ramen
they sound nice tho, just have bunch of appliances already ig not poo pooing em
No.1646959
>>1646953>i mean god forbid you are a electric top user trying to make riceelectric stoves
are unbelievably gay and shitty, but that shouldnt be an issue either, frankly
are you lik adding the rice before the waters boiling or some retard shit?
just wait till it boils, add rice, stir it a bit, throw in sum oil/butter, and cover it and drop the heat
No.1646960
>>1646956>just have bunch of appliancessingle-purpose appliances are memes for bored housewives who already have enough dildos
imo at least
No.1646964
>>1646956if my stove wasn't shit i'd just use that, but it works well enough for most other stuff and i'd rather just buy a rice cooker for less than $100 than spend minimum $500 on a lower end new stove
No.1646972
>>1646959muh rice goes into cold water, comes out fluffy as a geisha's bush
i do lower temp for longer on the actual cooking but basically gordong vers
No.1647048
I didn't feel like playing guessing games with the wordfilter so enjoy some ＦＡＴ ＴＥＸＴ
>>1646933Ｉ ｈａｖｅ ｎｏ ｉｄｅａ ｗｈａｔ ｔｈｅ ｔｅｆｌｏｎ ｇｕｙ ｗａｓ ｏｎ ａｂｏｕｔ， Ｍａｙｂｅ ｉｔ’ｓ ａ ｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔ ｋｉｎｄａ ｒｉｃｅ ｃｏｏｋｅｒ
ｉ ｈａｄ ａ ｃｈｅａｐ ｏｎｅ ｗｈｉｃｈ ｗａｓ ｊｕｓｔ ａ ｐｏｔ， ａ ｌｉｄ， ａｎｄ ａｎ ｏｎ ｂｕｔｔｏｎ ｔｈａｔ ｓｗｉｔｃｈｅｄ ｏｆｆ ｗｈｅｎ ｉｔ ｗａｓ ｄｏｎｅ， ｂｕｔ ｔｈｅｎ ｉ ｔｒｉｅｄ ｔｈｅ ｆａｎｃｙ ｏｎｅｓ ｔｈａｔ ｓｅａｌ ｕｐ， ａｎｄ ｔｈｏｓｅ Ａｒｅ ｔｈｅ ｏｎｅｓ ｔｈａｔ ｄｏ ｔｈｅ ｆａｎｃｙ ｓｈｉｔ Ｉ ｗａｓ ｔａｌｋｉｎｇ ａｂｏｕｔ． Ｔｈｏｓｅ ａｒｅ ｌｉｋｅ ｃｏｍｐｕｔｅｒｓ ｍｉｎｕｓ ａｌｌ ｔｈｅ ｓｏｙｂｏｙ ＩＯＴ ｆａｇｇｏｔｒｙ Ｓｏ ｉｄｋ ｈｏｗ ｙｏｕ ｃｏｕｌｄ ｅｖｅｒ ｆｕｃｋ ｉｔ ｕｐ ｉｆ ｙｏｕ’ｒｅ ｊｕｓｔ ｄｏｉｎｇ ｒｉｃｅ／ｂｕｔｔｅｒ／ｗａｔｅｒ Ｂｕｔ Ｉ ｄｏｎ’ｔ ａｄｄ ｂｕｔｔｅｒ ｓｏ ＹＭＭＶ Ｉ ｇｕｅｓｓ？ Ｉｆ ｙｏｕ’ｒｅ ｗｏｒｒｉｅｄ ａｂｏｕｔ ｑｕａｌｉｔｙ ａｓ ｌｏｎｇ ａｓ ｙｏｕｒ ｒｉｃｅ ｃｏｏｋｅｒ ｃｏｍｅｓ ｆｒｏｍ ａ ｃｉｖｉｌｉｚｅｄ ｃｏｕｎｔｒｙ （ＮＯＴ ＣＨＩＮＫＳＨＩＴ）ｙｏｕ ｓｈｏｕｌｄｎ’ｔ ｈａｖｅ ｔｏ ｗｏｒｒｙ。 Ｊａｐｓ， ｋｏｒｅａｎｓ， ｅｔｃ． ｃａｎ’ｔ ａｆｆｏｒｄ ｐｒｏｐｅｒ ｄｏｏｒｓ ｏｒ ｂｅｄｓ ｂｕｔ ｅｖｅｒｙｏｎｅ ｈａｓ ａ ｒｉｃｅ ｃｏｏｋｅｒ
ｗｈｉｌｅ ｙｏｕ’ｒｅ ａｔ ｉｔ ｌｏｏｋ ｕｐ ｐｒｅｗａｓｈｅｄ ｒｉｃｅ． ｉｔ’ｓ ｔｈｅ ｎｅｗ ｓｌｉｃｅｄ ｂｒｅａｄ
>>1646960Ｎｏｔ ｗｒｏｎｇ ｂｕｔ ｕｎｌｅｓｓ ｙｏｕ’ｒｅ ｋｅｔｏ ｏｒ ｓｏｍｅｔｈｉｎｇ ｅｖｅｒｙ ｍｅａｌ ｉｎｖｏｌｖｅｓ ｒｉｃｅ ｏｒ ｂｒｅａｄ （ｕｎｌｅｓｓ ｉｔｓ ｎｏｏｄｌｅｓ）， ｓｏ ａｎｙ ｓｉｎｇｌｅ ｕｓｅ ａｐｐｌｉａｎｃｅ ｔｈａｔ ｓｏｌｖｅｓ ｔｈｅ ｂｒｅａｄ ａｎｄ／ｏｒ ｒｉｃｅ ｐｒｏｂｌｅｍ ｉｓ ｗｏｒｔｈ ｉｔ